How to Understand SSA’s Disability Waterfall Chart
The Social Security Administration’s (SSA) annual Disability Waterfall Chart provides a snapshot of disability decisions made at each stage of the Social Security Disability process. At first glance, the chart can be a little difficult to interpret. Here’s what the FY 2025 data show.
Initial Level
The Initial Level is where a disability claim begins. In Fiscal Year 2025, SSA issued 2,246,542 initial disability decisions.
Of those decisions:
- 36% were allowed
- 64% were denied
This means that nearly two-thirds of initial disability decisions issued during FY 2025 resulted in a denial.
Reconsideration
After an initial denial, a claimant generally may request reconsideration, the first level of administrative appeal.
SSA issued 584,625 reconsideration decisions during FY 2025:
- 16% were allowed
- 84% were denied
The reconsideration level had the lowest allowance rate of the initial and administrative hearing stages shown on the chart.
Administrative Law Judge Hearing
Following an unfavorable reconsideration decision, a claimant generally may request a hearing before an Administrative Law Judge (ALJ).
During FY 2025, 277,740 ALJ hearing decisions and dismissals are reflected in SSA’s data:
- 50% were allowed
- 33% were denied
- 16% were dismissed
The 50% allowance rate at the ALJ level is notably higher than the 16% allowance rate reported at reconsideration.
Appeals Council Review
An unfavorable ALJ decision may be appealed to SSA’s Appeals Council. Unlike the earlier stages, the Appeals Council may also remand a case, meaning it sends the case back for additional proceedings.
For FY 2025, SSA reports 83,759 Appeals Council dispositions:
- 1% were allowed
- 15% were remanded
- 80% were denied
- 3% were dismissed
Federal Court
After the administrative appeals process has been exhausted, certain unfavorable SSA decisions may be challenged in federal court.
SSA reports 13,587 federal court dispositions for FY 2025:
- 1% were allowed
- 65% were remanded
- 30% were denied
- 5% were dismissed
A remand is different from an allowance. When a federal court remands a case, the case is generally returned to SSA for further administrative proceedings rather than resulting in an immediate award of disability benefits.
What Does the “Waterfall” Mean?
The chart visually shows how the volume of disability cases changes as cases move into successive levels of review. More than 2.2 million initial decisions are represented, compared with approximately 585,000 reconsideration decisions, 278,000 ALJ-level dispositions, 84,000 Appeals Council dispositions, and 14,000 federal court dispositions.
However, there is an important limitation when reading these numbers:
The chart does not follow the same group of claimants from beginning to end.
The figures represent decisions or dispositions occurring at each level during Fiscal Year 2025. A case decided by an ALJ in FY 2025, for example, may have begun well before FY 2025.
For that reason, the percentages should not be read as an individual claimant’s odds of eventually receiving benefits.
What Can Disability Applicants Take Away From the Chart?
Perhaps the clearest takeaway is that denials are common during the early stages of the Social Security Disability process.
In FY 2025, 64% of initial decisions and 84% of reconsideration decisions were denials. At the ALJ hearing level, however, 50% of dispositions reflected an allowance.
Receiving a denial therefore does not necessarily mean that a disability claim is over. Depending on the circumstances and stage of the claim, additional levels of administrative or judicial review may be available. Appeal deadlines apply, so claimants should carefully review any notice received from SSA.
Source: Social Security Administration (SSA), Decision Support and Strategic Information (DSSI), Fiscal Year 2025 Workload Data: Disability Decisions, prepared January 8, 2026.
The statistics above describe SSA disability dispositions during Fiscal Year 2025 and do not predict the outcome of any individual claim. This information is provided for general informational purposes and is not legal advice.
